COVID-19 Research at NITs & IIEST, Shibpur

Initiatives taken by NITs & IIEST, Shibpur under the Reserch Area: Data Analytics, AI to model epidemic patterns and disease dynamics
1 Project Title : Mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission incorporating herd immunity dynamics and family structures of Indian society.
Expected Outcome : Better models to guide social distancing planning under regular situation
Expected Timeline : 1 year
Remarks :
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PI Details : Susanta Chakrabarty, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering Pallab Datta, Centre for Healthcare Science and Technology D S Chakraborty, CHST
PI Email id : sc@cse.iiests.ac.in; pd@chest.iiests.ac.in; ds_chakraborty@yahoo.com
Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology (IIEST), Shibpur
2 Project Title : COVID-19 Vulnerability Assessment of slums using Morphological Parameters.
Expected Outcome : This would facilitate the government to identify target areas to prepare precautionary measures for high ranked COVID vulnerable slum typologies.
Expected Timeline : 07 Months
Remarks : Objectives: 1. Developing Slum Typologies based on morphological parameters using spatial metrics 2. Identification of morphological parameters that are responsible for vulnerability in relation to COVID’19 3. Identification of vulnerable slum settlements to COVID, that require prior attention for mitigation.
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PI Details : Neha Pranav Kolhe, Dr. Surabhi Mehrotra Designation: Assistant Professor Department: Architecture and Planning Institute: MANIT, Bhopal
PI Email id : neha.jharia@gmail.com
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal
3 Project Title : IOT based health data collection and its analysis.
Expected Outcome : Based on the analysis of medical history of people: 1. People may be categorized for level of required COVID’19 treatment. 2. Estimation of intensive medical facility required for particular area.
Expected Timeline : 01 month
Remarks : Data of people will be collected remotely with the help of IOT enabled medical kits and it will be stored on the cloud. If any person is infected through COVID’19, such person may be categorized for level of treatment on the basis of his/her medical history.
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PI Details : Dr. Manisha Dubey, Professor Dr. Mukesh Kirar, Assistant Prof. Department of Electrical Engg. Dr. Dhirendra Pratap Singh, Assistant Prof. Dr. Jaytriok Choudhary , Assistant Prof. Department of Comput
PI Email id : manishadubey6@gmail.com
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal
4 Project Title : Computational Repurposing of Drugs/Synthetic Compounds for Inhibiting RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) in COVID-19 Infection in Humans
Expected Outcome : The outcomes of proposed project will be sustainable in long-term as it will help in computational repurposing of peptide based drugs in coming days and will certainly reduce the time taken for the development of drugs. However, there is need of in vitro study to explore the possible factors acting as enhancers in the virus replication, and in vivo examination is necessary to check the efficacy and potency of the drug used at different stages of treatments. As specific cocktail of antiviral, anti-malarial and immune-suppressive drugs are given to patients, this study can helpful for researchers, scientists and doctors for target based therapy.
Expected Timeline : 07 months
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PI Details : Dr. Rahul M. Shrivastava, Professor, Department of Bio Science & Engg.
PI Email id : shrivastavarm1972@gmail.com
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal
5 Project Title : "PeopleTracker" app to trace the close contacts of individuals who may be in the asymptomatic stage.
Expected Outcome : a) An app to identify fellow persons who came in close contact with the individual in the past fourteen days b) A CRUD based database to store the contact details
Expected Timeline : 1.5 months
Remarks : The Government of India is putting untiring efforts to contain the spread of Corona virus in the community. One of the major challenge is to identify the persons who came in contact with the COVID-19 patients. Currently, the investigation agencies are manually interrogating the patients. In addition to this, the Government of India has launched the Arogya Setu app which keeps a track of the COVID patients and informs if a person comes in close contact with the patient. However, since the incubation period of the virus is long, it could be possible that a person in asymptomatic stage has unknowingly infected many before it could be diagnosed. In the present scenario, everybody is in possession of a handheld smart phone device with minimum facilities such as Bluetooth, Internet connection, NFC facility etc. We intend to develop a PeopleTracker app which would identify all the fellow persons who came in contact in the last fourteen days. There are two major challenges in the development of the application. The first challenge is installation of the developed app in all the smartphones. This can be done by ensuring that every time a user access the Internet, this app would automatically get switched on. The Bluetooth technology will detect all the Android devices in its range and store the mobile number of respective devices in its local database. Periodically, the data would be transferred to a secure server. This data would be stored in the cloud for a period of fourteen days, after which it would automatically get deleted. The second challenge is privacy of the data. The data would be stored on the local Android device in encrypted form. Consequently, it would be sent over to the server over a secure channel. This data would be used only in case a new patient arrives. Moreover, this data would remain confidential and be used for the duration of pandemic by government authorities only.
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Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Shashank Srivastava, Assistant Professor, CSED Dr. Shashwati Banerjea, Assistant Professor, CSED Mr. Divyesh Vala, B.Tech CSED student
PI Email id : shashwati@mnnit.ac.in
Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology Allahabad
6 Project Title : Development of Ensemble Model for Predicting Trends of Covid19
Expected Outcome : This model is competent to closely predict accurate trends of COVID19 cases.
Expected Timeline : Weeks 2 to 3 weeks
Remarks : Funding required Rs. 20 Lakh for 3 Weeks
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Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Karan Verma, Dr. Ghanshyam Singh
PI Email id : karanverma@nitdelhi.ac.in, gsingh.ece@mnit.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Delhi
7 Project Title : Minimizing Risk of COVID-19 Spread in Essential Services with help of Reliability Centred Analysis
Expected Outcome : This model is competent to closely predict accurate trends of COVID19 cases.
Expected Timeline : 1 to 2 Years
Remarks : Proposed Budget: Rs. 20 Lakh
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Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Vivek Shrivastava
PI Email id : shvivek@nitdelhi.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Delhi
8 Project Title : Contact Tracing
Expected Outcome :
Expected Timeline :
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Additional Info
PI Details : Chandresh Kumar Maurya, Nitesh Kumar
PI Email id :
National Institute of Technology Delhi
9 Project Title : The Game of Self-interest vs. Social interest: Estimating Effective Strategic Interventions against COVID-19 with Stochastic Networks and Behavioural Games
Expected Outcome : The outcome of this project will be a realistic predictive data-driven quantitative model that (1) has SEIQR structure to be aligned with COVID-19, (2) considers passive infections and mobility, (3) takes into account of the delay in detection of asymptomatic exposed, (4) associates a ‘cost’ with being voluntarily self-quarantined/obey lock-down protocols, and (5) takes into account of a game of self-interests on network. In search of interventions strategies, methods will be borrowed from comp
Expected Timeline : 2 months for entire model formulation, 1 month for model optimization.
Remarks : The project trusts on a) computational facility capable of handling large-scale spatial simulations and machine learning algorithms, and b) a dedicated web domain. The budget is proposed accordingly in the attached file.
URL : https://saumikb.github.io/epidemiology101/
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Sayantari Ghosh, Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology, Durgapur. PI Expertise: Mathematical modelling of complex systems, Data-driven predictive computational models of real sys
PI Email id : sayantari.ghosh@phy.nitdgp.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Durgapur
10 Project Title : Toward Securing-Tracing apps related to Covid-19
Expected Outcome : To develop a Lightweight cryptographic algorithm to secure location data which can preferably work with ‘Arogya Setu App’
Expected Timeline : 6-8 weeks
Remarks : From the emergence of Covid-19, the primary focus of governments across the world is contact tracing of the effected person. To achieve this, most of the governments use smartphone data to track where people go and with whom they interact. In this regard, Government of India is also using ‘Arogya Setu App’ successfully. These so-called contact-tracing apps help public health officials get ahead of the spread of Covid-19. However, the downside is the inherent loss of privacy. If abused, raw location data of a person could reveal sensitive information related to that person using the app. Therefore, this work proposes to develop a lightweight cryptographic algorithm such that sensitive location data can be securely transferred to the destination without being compromised.
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Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Nitin Gupta
PI Email id : nitin@nith.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Hamirpur
11 Project Title : Prediction of growth and review of factors influencing the transmission of Covid19
Expected Outcome : A paper
Expected Timeline : depends on review process
Remarks : none
URL : https://www.nitkkr.ac.in/comp_faculty_details.php?idd=94
Additional Info
PI Details : Gyanendra Kumar Verma Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Engineering
PI Email id : gyanendra@nitkkr.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Kurukshetra
12 Project Title : Development of Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Transmission of Coronavirus Disease (COVID19) incorporating the Lockdown and human consciousness Factors.
Expected Outcome : publications, patent
Expected Timeline : 1 year
Remarks : Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB) Rs. 5,00,000/-
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PI Details : Dr.G.S. Mahapatra, Associate Professor, Dept. of Maths National Institute of Technology Puducherry Karaikal
PI Email id : gs.mahapatra@nitpy.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Puducherry
13 Project Title : Self-testing health risk app (AI-ML powered android based application Platform)
Expected Outcome : · Detection of COVID-19 affected person. · Reduce panic of COVID-19 among people. · AI-powered Self answering framework to resolve general queries of users. · Reduce load of patients query, from the hospitals and health centre. · Provide relevant information about local/ global corona outbreak and its statistics. · Spread awareness to stay safe from present and any future upcoming pandemic.
Expected Timeline : 8-12 weeks
Remarks : Funding Requirement of 50,000 INR
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PI Details : Dr Saurabh Gupta, Asst Prof, Biomedical Engg Dept Team: Resham Raj Shivwansh, Animesh Kumar Soni, Neelkant Nevra, Gara Shashi Kumar, Sikta Sharma, Shikhar Chepe
PI Email id : sgupta.bme@nitrr.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Raipur
14 Project Title : Web application to predict COVID-19 through X ray images.
Expected Outcome : It will help doctors to predict the Covid19 through X Ray images of patients in considerably less time than testing kits.
Expected Timeline : 8-12 weeks
Remarks : Funding Requirement of 50,000 INR
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PI Details : Dr Saurabh Gupta, Asst Prof, Biomedical Engg Dept Team: Pankaj Jain
PI Email id : sgupta.bme@nitrr.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Raipur
15 Project Title : Tracking, Preventing and Controlling COVID-19 through Android App
Expected Outcome : · Tracking, Preventing and Controlling COVID-19 · Identification of real time hot-spots and susceptible people from contact /path tracing · Mass Gatherings will be detected · Users of our app will be notified in advanced about nearby threats if there · Efficient medical resource allotment
Expected Timeline : 4-8 weeks
Remarks : Funding Requirement of 50,000 INR
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PI Details : Dr Saurabh Gupta, Asst Prof, Biomedical Engg Dept Dr Pavan Mishra, Asst Prof, IT Dept, pavan_km.it@nitrr.ac.in Team: Aman Verma, Ayush Ganguli, Ammar Allavi, Aryan Sarkar, Ka
PI Email id : sgupta.bme@nitrr.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Raipur
16 Project Title : Addressing mental health challenges of quarantined people using AR/ VR
Expected Outcome : The immersive tech will help to address mental health challenges of quarantined people using AR/ VR which could otherwise can go into depression or other psychological disorders.
Expected Timeline : 12 months
Remarks : Funding Requirement of 5 lakhs INR
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PI Details : Dr Saurabh Gupta, Asst Prof, Biomedical Engg Dept
PI Email id : sgupta.bme@nitrr.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Raipur
17 Project Title : Investigation on role of AI on formulated systemic structure of pandemic COVID-19
Expected Outcome : Negative effect of handling of AI will be revealed from this study (amid outburst of COVID-19). It will help governments to formulate Informational Technology Act for regulating implementation of AI in different applications.
Expected Timeline : Study started, expected to be completed by 4 months.
Remarks : Investigation is likely to have huge policy-driven effect in world economic and technological perspectives.
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PI Details : Dr. Arindam Bit, Dr. Shashikanta Tarai; arinbit.bme@nitrr.ac.in, starai.eng@nitrr.ac.in
PI Email id :
National Institute of Technology Raipur
18 Project Title : Development of alternative therapeutic strategies for treatment of COVID-19 patients at early stage of the disease.
Expected Outcome : An alternative route will be uncover for the therapeutic treatment of COVID-19 patients at their early stage of the disease.
Expected Timeline : Development of the prototype diagnostic kit - 24 months
Remarks : The work is jointly conducted by researchers form Uppsala University, Sweden. Funding Requirement for Method development, standardization, Validation of prototype device- Rs. 30 Lakh.
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PI Details : Dr. Arindam Bit, arinbit.bme@nitrr.ac.in
PI Email id :
National Institute of Technology Raipur
19 Project Title : Forecasting of COVID-19 Disease Spread by a Neural Network based Model
Expected Outcome : This project will be useful for doctors, researchers and government. The developed ANN models in this project will be used to forecast spread of COVID-19
Expected Timeline : 1 Week to 12 Weeks
Remarks : NA
URL : NA
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr Amit Kumar Yadav Electrical and Electronics Engineering NIT Sikkim
PI Email id : amit1986.529@nitsikkim.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Sikkim
20 Project Title : Investigation on developing model of transmission dynamics characteristics of COVID-19 in human health
Expected Outcome : This outcome would help at what environmental conditions this Covid-19 favorably grows or affects the human, and necessary precautionary measure could be taken by the citizen or Govt. to break the chain and thereby helping to mitigate such human disaster consequences.
Expected Timeline : 1 year
Remarks : As per WHO, the whole world has an emerging health risk of the epidemic and there is a need to assess the transmission dynamics of influenza due to Covid-19 so that the necessary precautions and care could be taken to contain it. The incubation rate and reproduction rate concerning the different atmospheric conditions prevailing across the globe are to be assessed to reduce the medical surge.
URL : http://www.nits.ac.in/departments/civil/civil.php
PI Details : Dr. Arjun Sil Dept of Civil Engineering NIT Silchar, Assam, India, 788010
PI Email id : silarjun@gmail.com, arjun@civil.nits.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Silchar
21 Project Title : Forecasting the probability of spread of COVID-19 considering Community Hygiene parameters
Expected Outcome : This research work will be beneficial not only to prevent the spread / infection of COVID 19 but also other pandemic diseases in future
Expected Timeline : 06-08 Months
Remarks :
URL : http://cs.nits.ac.in/malaya/
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Malaya Dutta Borah Assistant Professor Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, NIT Silchar, Assam
PI Email id : malayaduttaborah@gmail.com, malayaduttaborah@cse.nits.ac.inmalayaduttaborah@gmail.com, malayaduttaborah@cse.nits.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Silchar
22 Project Title : Merkle and Binary Tree Inspired Method for Accelerated COVID-19 Testing
Expected Outcome : Carry out more tests while covering a huge number of individuals.
Expected Timeline :
Remarks :
URL : https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340580929_Merkle_and_Binary_Tree_Inspired_Method_for_Accelerated_COVID-19_Testing_A_Concept?showFulltext=1&linkId=5e91f94f299bf13079913cd9
Additional Info
PI Details : Auqib Hamid Lone,? Department of Computer Science and Engineering, NIT Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir,India,190006 Aaqib Bashir Dar Independent Researcher, Jammu and Kashmir,India Roohie Naaz Department of Computer Science and Engineering, NIT Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir,India,190006
PI Email id :
National Institute of Technology Srinagar
23 Project Title : A Deep Neural Network for Detection and Diagnosis of Covid-19 from Chest X-ray Images
Expected Outcome :
Expected Timeline :
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Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. Asif Iqbal Khan Post-Doc Fellow, New Delhi, India MB: +919858323226
PI Email id : khanasifiqbal7@gmail.com
National Institute of Technology Srinagar
24 Project Title : Statistical and Data-Driven based Machine Learning, Forecasting and Inferences from Pandemic Data
Expected Outcome : clinical decision support system
Expected Timeline : 12 months
Remarks : Facilities are already available
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/ca/facultymca/asstprofessors/domnic/
Additional Info
PI Details : 1. Dr. E. Sivasankar, Team member, Centre of Excellence in AI, NIT, Trichy 2. Dr. S. Domnic, Coordinator, Centre of Excellence in AI, NIT, Trichy
PI Email id : domnic@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
25 Project Title : Detection of COVID-19 with Lung Sound with Artificial Intelligence
Expected Outcome : Method for the detection of COVID-19
Expected Timeline : 6 months
Remarks : Facilities are available. The method is already developed to the product level for cancer detection
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/ice/faculty/assoprofs/guma/
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. G. Uma, Dr. S. Domnic, Dr. N. Sivakumaran and Dr. M. Umapathy National Institute of Technology Trichy T. Geerthy, Research Scholar, ICE, NIT, Trichy Vibashan B S, Subhankar Biswas &Saurabh; Hitall
PI Email id : guma@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
26 Project Title : Predictive Models for COVID 19
Expected Outcome : decision support system using Prediction models
Expected Timeline : 12 months
Remarks : To provide decision support system
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/ice/faculty/assoprofs/sivakumaran/
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. N. Sivakumaran, Dr. G. Uma and Dr. M. Umapathy, National Institute of Technology Trichy T. Geerthy, Research Scholar, ICE, NIT, Trichy Karthik Vyas, Tanweer Ali, Vishal S , Manav Jain, Kuncha Chen
PI Email id : nsk@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
27 Project Title : Algorithm to extract respiration waveform from PPG signal to diagnose COVID 19
Expected Outcome : Algorithms to extract RR pattern from PPG signal to detect COVID 19 in patients.
Expected Timeline : 3 months
Remarks :
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/ice/faculty/asstprof/sridevi/
Additional Info
PI Details : Ms. V. Sridevi, Dr. D. Ezhilarasi Student Members: Rahul Atul Bophe, Amogh Agarwal, Siddhant Sanjay Dasgupta, Kannadhasan K
PI Email id : sridevi@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
28 Project Title : Predicting Hotspot detection to share resources effectively for COVID-19 control in Tamil Nadu using Deep learning
Expected Outcome : Software to predict hotspot location in Tamil Nadu
Expected Timeline : 2 months
Remarks : Earlier attempts: Sankar N Nair, E.S.Gopi, "Deep Learning Techniques for Crime Hotspot Detection", Optimization in Machine learning and Applications, Springer, 2020
URL : : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/ece/faculty/asstprof/gopi/
Additional Info
PI Details : : Dr.E.S.Gopi, Associate professor, Department of ECE
PI Email id : esgopi@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
29 Project Title : Influence of Demographics and HAbitual Patterns for COVID – 19 for predictive and prescriptive analytics – INDHAP - 2020
Expected Outcome : Demography patterns for COVID – 19 spread • Habitual patterns for COVID – 19 patients and a visualization of the same • Demography and Habitual data models • Predictive algorithms for COVID – 19 patients • Preventive care for COVID – 19 prone patients • Visual representation of Demography and Habitual influence
Expected Timeline : 12 months
Remarks : •
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/faculty/srajeswari.pdf
Additional Info
PI Details : PI Details : Dr Rajeswari Sridhar, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli PI Email id : srajeswari@nitt.edu Co-PI Details: Dr. G. R. Gangadharan, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Applications, National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli
PI Email id : srajeswari@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
30 Project Title : Robotic Assistant and Companion Robot for COVID 19
Expected Outcome : ? Autonomous robots which assist COVID 19 patient which avoid direct contact of other people with the patient and prevent the pandemic spread. ? Health Monitoring System to monitor the patient health ? Assist the patient in medical and needy items ? Provide good companionship for the quarantine persons which reduce stress of the individuals.
Expected Timeline : 4 Months
Remarks :
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/cse/faculty/sridevi/
Additional Info
PI Details : Principal Investigator (PI): Dr. M. Sridevi, Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli, Tamil Nadu – 620015. Email id : msridevi@nitt.edu Co-PI: Dr. Rajeswari Sridhar, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli, Tamil Nadu – 620015. Email id : srajeswari@nitt.edu
PI Email id : msridevi@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
31 Project Title : Impact of COVID-19 in Toddlers and Teenagers in India.
Expected Outcome : 1. AI based predictive model for disease spread pattern among kids and teenagers 2. Identifying the more susceptible population among them to help authorities in making suitable decisions 3. Prescription of immunity booster foods for the population under study, to break the spread.
Expected Timeline : 1-2 years
Remarks : Toddlers and teenagers need to be given special attention to find the impact of the corona virus on children so that adequate facilities are made available for their care. The Budget required would be around 2 lakhs
URL : https://www.nitt.edu/home/academics/departments/cse/faculty/jnirmala/
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. S. Jaya Nirmala, AP/CSE, Dr. S. Sangeetha, AP/CA, NIT Trichy PI Email id: sjaya@nitt.edu, sangeetha@nitt.edu
PI Email id : sjaya@nitt.edu
National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli
32 Project Title : Development of an optimized search algorithm for minimizing the number of COVD-19 test kit requirements for mass testing, and area-wise optimal allocation of testing kits distribution using Game Theory.
Expected Outcome : It will reduce time duration of testing and number of test kit requirement for bulk population testing.
Expected Timeline : 3 months
Remarks :
URL : http://nituk.ac.in/index.php
PI Details : Mr. Himesh Kumar (himesh.kumar@nituk.ac.in) & Mr. Vivek Kumar(vivek.kumar@nituk.ac.in) National Institute of Technology Uttarakhand
PI Email id : vivek.kumar@nituk.ac.in
National Institute of Technology Uttarakhand
33 Project Title : Searching inhibitors for the potent COVID-19 RdRp/ ACE2/ SGp through molecular docking and other computational approaches
Expected Outcome : To identify the therapeutically potent of available drugs along with novel molecules present in plants/fruits against the COVID-19.
Expected Timeline :
Remarks : Please see under Additional Info.
URL :
Additional Info
PI Details : Seshu Vardhan and Suban K Sahoo, Department of Applied Chemistry
PI Email id : suban_sahoo@rediffmail.com, sks@chem.svnit.ac.in
S V National Institute of Technology Surat
34 Project Title : Impact of News on Social Media during Pandemic of COVID-19
Expected Outcome : Pandemic News Support System
Expected Timeline : 5 months
Remarks : The project is to reduce the negative impact of COVID-19 news by collecting information from the social media network and natural language processing techniques to classify the news content with sentiment categories like chaos, panic, doubt, neutral, etc. and to regenerate the controlled news content with positive insights and public awareness.
URL :
Additional Info
PI Details : Dr. R. G. Mehta (Asso. Prof., COED), Dr. D. P. Rana (Asst. Prof., COED), Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat
PI Email id : 1. rgm@coed.svnit.ac.in, 2. dpr@coed.svnit.ac.in
S V National Institute of Technology Surat
Initiatives taken by NITs & IIEST, Shibpur under the Reserch Area: Data Analytics, AI to model epidemic patterns and disease dynamics